A few important things stood out this weekend going into the new week.

AI, geopolitics, SpaceX, BTC, and a stock market that still feels like it wants higher, even if the clean chase is probably behind us in a few places.

The Anthropic news was probably the biggest non-market story from the weekend.

Fable and Mythos being restricted for certain users, with security risk cited, is one of those stories that makes the obvious thing even more obvious.

These platforms are incredible.

They are also now very clearly a national security interest.

That means control, restriction, and government involvement were probably always going to be part of the path. You can disagree with how it is done, but the direction seems pretty obvious.

Dario Amodei has basically talked about this like Pandora’s box. When asked whether businesses, policymakers, and governments are doing enough to prepare for AI, his answer was basically no.

The core risk is not “AI is cool and powerful.”

The risk is advanced capabilities, especially cyber capabilities, getting into the hands of people who should not have them.

That is the part markets will have to keep processing.

AI is not just a productivity story anymore.

It is a regulation story, a security story, and a strategic asset story.

The US and Iran reportedly reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with officials expected to meet in Switzerland on June 19 to formally sign it.

This is probably the closest thing we have had to a real resolution.

But it is not over until it is actually signed and fully implemented.

That matters because the market can price relief before the event is fully done. That also means some giveback is possible if the details are messy, delayed, or challenged.

So, yes, this helps the risk backdrop.

But I would not treat it like the whole macro overhang has disappeared until it is 100% signed and behind us.

SpaceX traded thick on Friday.

Buying early ended up being the right idea, and there was a pretty clean trade off the 5-minute range retest if you were watching it closely.

Good liquidity, clean structure, good risk reward.

That does not mean Monday is an automatic chase.

Short borrow is extremely hard to come by and very expensive right now. We will see how that changes as more shares become available, and especially what happens when options come online on Tuesday.

My base game plan for Monday is to look for long opportunities, probably more so in the first half of the session.

That said, I would like to get involved after some kind of long liquidation.

So far, that has been minimal.

When a name is this hyped, this crowded, and this hard to short, you can get very clean upside, but you can also get people trapped late if they start buying every uptick with no plan.

Tuesday matters because options go live.

You will probably see a lot of call selling from institutions and holders trying to capture yield against shares.

If dealers get long calls from that flow, they may need to short stock as a hedge.

That does not automatically mean the stock goes lower, but it does change the microstructure.

Friday was the clean opening act.

Monday and Tuesday should tell us a lot more.

BTC is showing its first real signs of strength in a while. Albeit this last portion is somewhat of a short squeeze.

The lows were the better longs from a contextual risk reward standpoint, which we talked about already. Now price is breaking out of prior weekly value and this month’s value.

It is also holding the anchored VWAP from the lows.

That is constructive.

But as I said, most of this still looks like a short squeeze so far.

When BTC is up big overnight, that is usually not where I want to chase. If we get a pullback into the NY open and that pullback is bid, that is where the risk reward can get cleaner.

I still would not blindly assume a full trend change here, especially at this time of year.

That keeps the short side compelling eventually, but not right here in the middle of the move.

For me, the short side becomes more interesting if we trade closer to the air pockets around 68k to 70k.

Until then, this is a market where I want to respect the squeeze, but not lose my mind chasing it.

With rate hikes now priced in, and with the market recently getting more bearish as top calls started coming back, the path of least resistance for stocks still seems higher.

That does not mean everything is clean.

Leaders have been struggling in some areas, and after strong trends, markets can take longer than people want to build out again. On top of that, the market is seeing a bit of a rotation, while the tech and the AI trade took a breather. I think we might be at that point where the market consolidates for more than just a few weeks.

That being said, there are still a lot of good charts, and all-in-all I am still bullish on stocks.

This week I am watching:

AMKR, big breakout Friday
INTC
LLY
CRDO
MRVL
OUST

I still think there is a chance stocks need a little more time after such strong trends.

ES gapping up overnight probably creates some giveback risk at some point this week. When everyone gets the relief headline at once, you usually do not want to be the last person chasing the gap.

The better trade is usually after we see how the market digests it.

If dips are shallow and buyers keep showing up, that tells you a lot.

If the gap fades quickly and leaders do not respond, that tells you something too.

This week is about seeing what holds after the weekend headlines.

AI regulation is becoming a real theme.

Hormuz gives the market relief, but it still needs to be finalized.

SpaceX is probably going to remain one of the highest-attention names on the board.

BTC is squeezing and finally showing strength, but I would still rather buy clean pullbacks than chase overnight strength.

Stocks still look like they want higher, but the cleanest entries may come after some giveback.

No need to force the first move.

Let the market show what actually matters after the open.

One of my favorite trader stories is the Turtle Traders experiment.

In the 1980s, Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt tested whether great traders were born or could be trained.

They recruited a group of people, taught them a rules-based trend following system, and had them trade real money.

The interesting part is not just that some of them did well.

The interesting part is that the whole experiment was built around the idea that process could be taught.

Entries, exits, sizing, risk, discipline.

That is still the game.

Most people want the trade idea.

The better question is whether you have a repeatable process for what you do once the trade starts moving against you, in your favor, or nowhere at all.