I put together a new video on the SpaceX IPO and how I would actually think about trading it.
The main point is simple: IPO day is not a normal chart trade.
There are no real levels yet. No prior high volume nodes. No established support and resistance. No clean chart history to lean on. The market is literally building the chart in real time, and if you come in trying to force normal technical analysis onto it, you are probably already playing the wrong game.
What matters on day one is flow.
Where is size absorbing? Where are aggressive buyers actually getting paid? Where does the opening auction create structure? How wide are the spreads? Is this being chased by retail, accumulated by institutions, or distributed into hype?
I also get into the unlock structure, Nasdaq inclusion angle, proxy names to watch, and why the cleaner trade might not be trying to be first in on SpaceX itself.
Video here:
This is less about making a prediction and more about understanding what kind of market you are stepping into. IPOs can be incredible opportunities, but only if you respect the fact that the first job is not to be early.
It is to survive the auction long enough to see what is actually real.
Good luck out there!
If you want more of this kind of work every day, real-time market prep, trade planning, flow reads, risk management, and the framework behind how I approach these opportunities, that is what we do inside The Stable.
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